Increase efforts to increase the intensity of the property market risk lara fabian

Efforts to ensure growth will aggravate the financial market risk Sina (WeChat public opinion leader column No. kopleader) columnist Shen Jianguang this year to the inventory effect, but it has pushed up much of the real estate bubble; capacity to slightly progress, but to promote the lever of slow, structural problems still outstanding. Based on this background, increase the intensity of growth policy will only further push up leverage, increase the risk of real estate bubble, is not conducive to economic restructuring. Alert to maintain growth over recent macroeconomic data and highlights. August industrial profits, coal prices and freight prices rebound, housing sales, power generation and other strong data, show the actual operation of China economy to better less likely than expected. At the same time, compared to last year’s situation, push in the loose monetary policy, financial support and the real estate market this year, many economic indicators have significantly better than last year, showing the economy to be significantly better than last year. Given that official GDP growth figures have reached 6.9% last year, today’s economic growth should be higher, rather than lower official data show. This means that the low official macroeconomic indicators, to the macro economic decision that bring interference to guarantee the economic growth of more than 6.5% of the target underpinning has greatly exceeded, if more measures to maintain growth, will only aggravate the real estate bubble and the overall leverage, is not conducive to the control of financial risk and supply side reforms. Eight reasons to show this year than last year, the economy has improved significantly compared to the few changes in the GDP quarter economic data, the author is more inclined to use some high-frequency economic indicators to observe the short-term economic trends. Combined with the current observation, some important economic indicators, such as power generation, industrial profits, investment, real estate, automobile consumption, correction Keqiang index and other data, improved significantly over the same period last year, which means that the economy is better this year in the same period last year. First, the industrial enterprises have a significant rebound in profits. Above scale industrial enterprises profit this year 1-8 month from 7 months to 6.9% rise to 8.4%, among them, the August profit grew 19.5%, the growth rate in July, up 8.5 percentage points, since this year the highest monthly growth, the economic situation for the better obviously. In contrast, the same period last year, 1-8 industrial enterprise profit growth of only -1.9%, the main business income of 1.3%, also lower than the same period last year, 3.6%. This year’s profit situation is not only negative positive, and the growth rate has improved significantly. Figure 1: above scale enterprises profit significantly increased by second, from the power consumption, the last 1-8 months generating capacity is only 0.5%, and the annual power generation capacity of -0.2%, compared to the present, the current generation of data is very strong, 1-8 monthly capacity of 3%, only a single month in August generating capacity will grow 7.8% compared to the same period. From the classification of electricity consumption, industrial consumption last year 1-8 month -0.69% year -1.4% and 1-8 months of this year industrial consumption growth continued to rebound to 2%; urban residents electricity cumulative increase of 9.75%, compared to 4.25% in the same period last year increased by 5.5 percentage points. )相关的主题文章: